This shall be rather short but directly to the point.
U.S. Stock Market – I’m neither a major bull nor bear but believe by this time next year, I would want to be virtually out of all non-metals related U.S. equities. The secular bear market that began in late 2007 and was correctly perceived to be interrupted by the single greatest bear market rally of all-time, is anticipated to resume no matter who wins in November. Only a Romney win can delay by only a matter of months the inevitable Greece-like scenario to unfold here in America (Read may 9th commentary).
U.S. Bonds – My patience to await a 10-yr T-Bond yield under 1.75% to short into may finally be rewarded. Stay tuned.
U.S. Dollar – I’ve spoken about shorting the U.S. Dollar Index if it can get to 83-84 and despite most seemingly thinking a major dollar rally is upon us, I’m not certain it can even get to that level barring a total collapse in Europe. But if and when it does, I shall again remind you of the scenario I painted in my May 9th commentary and the rest shall be up to you.
Oil and Natural Gas – If we should get so fortunate to see oil pull back to the mid $80s, I would think that’s a gift for getting long. Natural gas remains an avoid.
Gold and Silver – As you can see from the charts, both gold and silver have entered not only key support areas, but are recording some of the most oversold readings in quite some time. This is without a doubt the most bearish overall mood I felt since gold bottomed at the start of the millennium. While there shall be no quick fix and the pain can linger awhile longer, the “mother’ of all bull markets is far from over. I think my views have been cleared in all my recent interviews and commentaries. The boat of real and no-hedge gold bulls has only a few passengers left (and I’m glad to see Captain Jim Sinclair still at the helm) while the gold bear boat is filled up and sailing under the S.S. Titanic 2012 model.
Mining and Exploration Shares – Having loss more money on paper then I ever imagined I could have possessed in my lifetime, I stood in front of the mirror last night and asked myself was I committing two of the worse investment strategies I’ve told people for years not to:
1- The ultimate crime in investing is not being wrong but staying wrong.
2- Hope is a wonderful spiritual strategy but the worse investment strategy one can employ.
The response I got back (besides you could lose 30lbs) was to remain strong in my convictions and to know for the most part, my holdings should withstand this incredible onslaught of towels being thrown in everywhere.
For those who choose like I have for myself, we must also realize at best, we shall get an “L” shape recovery in the juniors for many months if and when we actually bottom. Numerous companies won’t survive in their present form but that shall also make the ones thrown out with the bathwater that much more attractive when people actually grab buy tickets again in our lifetime (Yesterday, the TSX looked very much like it was in a final capitulation frame of mind).
I’ve upgraded many companies on my “Tracking list” and also for the first time in years, suggested more ownership now going forward of mining and exploration shares versus the metals themselves.
I remind the few, the proud, the metals and mining bulls of our theme song and to remember this battle when it seems the odds are overwhelming against us and the perma bears chant throughout the media the bull market os over and they’re going in for the kill.
Final Thought – I heard from two people I hadn’t heard from in years, asking if I was interested in buying the Facebook IPO. This suggests to me the IPO may not be all many think it’s going to be. Personally, I would only buy FB closer to $15.