Oct 11
17
We have about six weeks of real trading left for 2011. Things will slow down as each day passes in December. (My office will close from December 10 to January 3). While the U.S. stock market is ever-so-slightly up for the year, I do anticipate significant tax-loss selling in most markets (although I suspect a fair amount has already taken place in the junior resource market during the last big downdraft).
U.S. Stock Market – I and a zillion others spoke about 1120 being a key support level for the S & P 500 back in late September. I had noted that while I wasn’t highly anticipating it, the fact that the market didn’t break below it for more than a day or so suggested we could see a meaningful countertrend rally (and why I didn’t want to short the market yet again).
We closed Friday at near-term resistance at 1225 but key resistance is at the 200-day M.A. around 1275. Look for lots of “happy” talk about a Santa Claus rally if and when we get closer to that level. Just because you and I may not believe in Santa doesn’t mean the “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” crowd won’t.
Precious and Base Metals – The “mother” of all gold bull markets remains fully intact. The bullish boat has thankfully returned back to just us kooks, nuts and tin-foil-hat folks. If you want to wait for an all-clear signal, look for two consecutive closes above $1,710. $2000+ remains when, not if in my book.
Silver should stay within gold’s shadow. Copper has roared back well above $3. Imagine what its price could do if ever it looks like many parts of the world presently in an economic funk actually start to grow again.
U.S. Bonds – SHOOT ME!!! I missed what I believed was a screaming shorting opportunity with the 10-year T-Bond below 1.75%. The only good news is I wasn’t short for almost the entire rally and managed to catch a great rally in Irish bonds. Ready, aim… FIRE!!!!
U.S. Dollar – Once again, all sorts of dollar bulls rose their badly beaten and bloody bodies to announce a new bull market for the terminally ill U.S. Dollar only to see their legs cut out from under them. Just wait until the world realizes the Euro is only the opening act, and the real ugly one has old George on the front.
Oil and Natural Gas – Neutral on oil and really like natural gas down here, but once again natural gas stocks vaulted higher without the support of actual higher gas prices. I guess that makes me a chicken bull.
GRANDICH CLIENTS:
Abacus Mining & Exploration Corp – Hopefully, the company is nearing the end of a relative quiet period of transition from explorer to developer and producer. News on this is anticipated before years-end.
Alderon Iron Ore Co. – Personally, my largest single holding (dollar-wise) at the moment. The son of Consolidated Thompson appears ready for manhood in 2012.
Argus Metals Corp. – Awaiting further Yukon exploration results.
Cap-Ex Ventures – I’ve acquired over a million shares in the last 30 days. With all my potential bias and conflict of interest noted, I think this stock was way overdone on the downside.
Crescent Resources – Waiting on plans for the future from the company.
Crosshair Explorations – Its Wyoming projects are doing well and are becoming its flagship properties.
Curis Resources – Has been pressured by some local planning board events, but management is confident no long-term effects should occur.
Donner Metals – I’ve never known a more hard-working CEO than David Patterson. If there really is any justice in the world, his tireless efforts with what must feel like a hand or two tied behind his back at times should be rewarded with actual production for DON.
Donnybrook Energy – A lull in major activity has brought the share price down to a very attractive speculative level.
Enertopia Corp. – See this
Excelsior Mining – As noted last Friday, it’s now my second largest personal holding. The release of a PEA in November should go a long way in judging if my accumulation and support of MIN was worthy. Stay tuned.
Formation Metals – My 15-year on and off working relationship with the company has made me feel like seeing cobalt produced at their project in Idaho is one of my desires before passing. Here’s to it coming sooner versus later.
Garibaldi Resources – No news for months, so I don’t know what else I can say at this point.
Heatherdale Resources – These recent commentaries should bring anyone up to speed.
Northcliff Resources – Read this
Northern Dynasty Minerals – Awaiting a local town ballot results in what has become an Albatross around my neck…and that’s just at home!
Oromin Explorations – In my highly prejudiced eyes, it’s not a question of if, but when OLE is taken over and/or merged. Stay tuned.
Rathdowney Resources – Read this
Ridgemont Iron Ore Co. – Read this
Silver Quest Resources – Listen to this
Spanish Mountain Gold – Nicely moving forward on becoming one of British Columbia’s newest mines.
Sunridge Gold – The share price doesn’t come close to reflecting the actual great progress the company has made on several fronts. Taking large scale losses sucks – trust me I know.
Timmins Gold – As anticipated, TMM is fast becoming a very significant gold producer with lots of upside potential.
Note that my Tracking List has been updated.
